How to estimate the number of advanced civilizations in the galaxy?
How to guess the number of Alien Civilsations in the Milky Way?
Just how many civilizatins in our galaxy can we communicate with?
And can the Drake Equation be extended to the entire universe?
There is actually an equation that gives us the number of civilsations in our galaxy that we
could communicate with.
It's called the Drake Equation.
The equation was written by Frank Drake goes all the way back to 1961.
It's an attempt to quantify how many alien civilisations are potentially out there that we
could communicate with.
Here's the equation:
N = R ∗ ⋅ f p ⋅ n e ⋅ f l ⋅ f i ⋅ f c ⋅ L
where:
N = the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which communication might be possible (i.e. which are on our current past light cone);
and
R∗ = the average rate of star formation in our galaxy
fp = the fraction of those stars that have planets
ne = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets
fl = the fraction of planets that could support life that actually develop life at some point
fi = the fraction of planets with life that actually go on to develop intelligent life (civilizations)
fc = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space
L = the length of time for which such civilizations release detectable signals into space
Some of these we can more accuarately quantify, but they all are estimates!
R* is currently thought to be around between 1.5 and 3 stars a year in our galaxy
The Milky Way galaxy is huge, and there could be around 100 billion stars in our galaxy.
Here are my estimates
R* = 3 , the number of new stars in our galaxy a year
fp = tending to 1, the fraction of all stars that have planets (potentially all of them!)
ne = roughly 0.5; the number of planets that could support life requires a planet to be in the habitble zone of the star, and is hard to estimate!
fl = 1, even harder to estimate, what fraction of these planets go on to develop life, I am going with 1. If the planet
can support life, my guess is that it will go on to develop
fi = 1 , what fraction of these planets develop intelligent life, I think thats 100%
fc = 5% , the fraction that are able to communicate with us, long distance !
L = length of civilisation, this couldbe millions of years
Putting these values in gives an estimate of 15,000,000 stars in our galaxy with civilisations we can communicate
with!
Imagine applying this to the entire universe!
Try putting your own estimates into the equation and see what you come out with.
Like and subscribe, and comment below.
Just how many civilizatins in our galaxy can we communicate with?
And can the Drake Equation be extended to the entire universe?
There is actually an equation that gives us the number of civilsations in our galaxy that we
could communicate with.
It's called the Drake Equation.
The equation was written by Frank Drake goes all the way back to 1961.
It's an attempt to quantify how many alien civilisations are potentially out there that we
could communicate with.
Here's the equation:
N = R ∗ ⋅ f p ⋅ n e ⋅ f l ⋅ f i ⋅ f c ⋅ L
where:
N = the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which communication might be possible (i.e. which are on our current past light cone);
and
R∗ = the average rate of star formation in our galaxy
fp = the fraction of those stars that have planets
ne = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets
fl = the fraction of planets that could support life that actually develop life at some point
fi = the fraction of planets with life that actually go on to develop intelligent life (civilizations)
fc = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space
L = the length of time for which such civilizations release detectable signals into space
Some of these we can more accuarately quantify, but they all are estimates!
R* is currently thought to be around between 1.5 and 3 stars a year in our galaxy
The Milky Way galaxy is huge, and there could be around 100 billion stars in our galaxy.
Here are my estimates
R* = 3 , the number of new stars in our galaxy a year
fp = tending to 1, the fraction of all stars that have planets (potentially all of them!)
ne = roughly 0.5; the number of planets that could support life requires a planet to be in the habitble zone of the star, and is hard to estimate!
fl = 1, even harder to estimate, what fraction of these planets go on to develop life, I am going with 1. If the planet
can support life, my guess is that it will go on to develop
fi = 1 , what fraction of these planets develop intelligent life, I think thats 100%
fc = 5% , the fraction that are able to communicate with us, long distance !
L = length of civilisation, this couldbe millions of years
Putting these values in gives an estimate of 15,000,000 stars in our galaxy with civilisations we can communicate
with!
Imagine applying this to the entire universe!
Try putting your own estimates into the equation and see what you come out with.
Like and subscribe, and comment below.